基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

Metal-free catalyst fabrication by incorporating oxygen groups on the surface of the carbonaceous sample and efficient hydrogen production from NaBH4 methanolysis

In the present study, metal-free catalysts for efficient H₂ generation from NaBH₄ methanolysis was produced for the first time from apricot kernel shells with two-step activation. The first stage of the two-stage activation includes the production of activated carbon with the KOH agent (AKOH), and the second stage includes hydrothermally HNO₃ activation with oxygen doping (O doped AKOH + N). The hydrogen production rate (HGR) and the activation energy (Ea) of the reaction with the obtained metal-free catalyst (10 mg) were determined as 14,444 ml min^?1 g^?1 and 7.86 kJ mol^?1, respectively. The structural and physical-chemical properties of these catalysts were characterized by XRD (X-ray diffraction), SEM (scanning electron microscopy), elemental CHNS analysis, FT-IR (Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy), and nitrogen adsorption analysis. Also, the reusability results of this metal-free catalyst for H₂ production are promising.     

Association of TaD14-4D,a Gene Involved in Strigolactone Signaling,with Yield Contributing Traits in Wheat

Tillering is a crucial agronomic trait of wheat; it determines yield and plant architecture. Strigolactones (SLs) have been reported to inhibit plant branching. D14, a receptor of SLs, has been described to affect tillering in rice, yet it has seldomly been studied in wheat. In this study, three TaD14 homoeologous genes, TaD14-4A, TaD14-4B, and TaD14-4D, were identified. TaD14-4A, TaD14-4B, and TaD14-4D were constitutively expressed, and TaD14-4D had a higher expression level in most tissues. TaD14 proteins were localized in both cytoplasm and nucleus. An SNP and a 22 bp insertion/deletion (Indel) at the exon regions of TaD14-4D were detected, forming three haplotypes, namely 4D-HapI, 4D-HapII, and 4D-HapIII. Due to the frameshift mutation in the coding region of 4D-HapII, the interaction of 4D-HapII with TaMAX2 and TaD53 was blocked, which led to the blocking of SL signal transduction. Based on the two variation sites, two molecular markers, namely dCAPS-250 and Indel-747, were developed. Association analysis suggested that haplotypes of TaD14-4D were associated with effective tillering number (ETN) and thousand kernel weight (TKW) simultaneously in four environments. The favorable haplotype 4D-HapIII underwent positive selection in global wheat breeding. This study provides insights into understanding the function of natural variations of TaD14-4D and develops two useful molecular markers for wheat breeding.     

基于k-shell的复杂网络最短路径近似算法

复杂网络最短路径经典算法的处理效率较低，不适用于大规模复杂网络，而现有近似算法通用性有限，且计算准确率不理想，不能满足规模日益扩大的复杂网络中的最短路径计算需求。针对于此，提出基于[k]-shell的复杂网络最短路径近似算法。算法利用节点的[k]-shell值进行网络划分并引导搜索路径，利用超点聚合处理[k]-shell子网来降低路径搜索中节点和连边的规模，通过在路径搜索过程使用双向搜索树方法提高算法的计算效率和准确率。实验结果表明，算法通用性较好，在现实与仿真大规模复杂网络中均具有较高的计算效率和准确率。     

A gradient boosting decision tree approach for insider trading identification: An empirical model evaluation of China stock market

Insider trading is a kind of criminal behavior in stock market by using nonpublic information. In recent years, it has become the major illegal activity in China’s stock market. In this study, a combination approach of GBDT (Gradient Boosting Decision Tree) and DE (Differential Evolution) is proposed to identify insider trading activities by using data of relevant indicators. First, insider trading samples occurred from year 2007 to 2017 and corresponding non-insider trading samples are collected. Next, the proposed method is trained by the GBDT, and initial parameters of the GBDT are optimized by the DE. Finally, out-of-samples are classified by the trained GBDT–DE model and its performances are evaluated. The experiment results show that our proposed method performed the best for insider trading identification under time window length of ninety days, indicating the relevant indicators under 90-days time window length are relatively more useful. Additionally, under all three time window lengths, relative importance result shows that several indicators are consistently crucial for insider trading identification. Furthermore, the proposed approach significantly outperforms other benchmark methods, demonstrating that it could be applied as an intelligent system to improve identification accuracy and efficiency for insider trading regulation in China stock market.     

PSO优化多核RVM的模拟电路故障预测

针对模拟电路健康管理的特点，提出了一种基于PSO优化多核RVM的模拟电路故障预测方法。利用参数分析得到电路的输出频域响应作为特征，计算其与电路无故障标准响应的欧氏距离来表征电路元件健康值，将多个核函数线性组合，并用PSO优化多核RVM参数后的模型实现对各个时间点元件的健康值变化轨迹进行预测。仿真结果表明，该方法在小样本情况下，预测效果优于单一核函数的RVM模型，适用于健康管理中实时预测，具有较好的实用性。     

2.5 GHz城市环境电磁态势的计算与补偿

复杂城市空间的电磁态势分布可以通过电磁场数值计算的方法进行预测。文章使用矩量法(MOM)结合一致性几何绕射理论(UTD)的方法对2.5 GHz频率下某小区环境中的电磁态势进行了仿真计算以及实际测量。场景中的树木结构在此频率下显示出比较强烈的波动性,对电磁仿真计算结果产生了不可忽略的影响,文中将其对仿真计算结果的影响进行了单独建模仿真,给出其产生影响的经验值,对仿真结果进行修正。修正结果与测量结果对比证明该经验值在该频率下可以有效补偿计算结果的缺失。     

Design structure matrix (DSM) method application to issue of modeling and analyzing the fault tree of a wind energy asset

The perpetual energy production of a wind farm could be accomplished (under proper weather conditions) if no failures occurred. But even the best possible design, manufacturing, and maintenance of a system cannot eliminate the failure possibility. In order to understand and minimize the system failures, the most crucial components of the wind turbines, which are prone to failures, should be identified. Moreover, it is essential to determine and classify the criticality of the system failures according to the impact of these failure events on wind turbine safety. The present study is processing the failure data from a wind farm and uses the Fault Tree Analysis as a baseline for applying the Design Structure Matrix technique to reveal the failure and risk interactions between wind turbine subsystems. Based on the analysis performed and by introducing new importance measures, the “readiness to fail” of a subsystem in conjunction with the “failure riskiness” can determine the “failure criticality.” The value of the failure criticality can define the frame within which interventions could be done. The arising interventions could be applied either to the whole system or could be focused in specified pairs of wind turbine subsystems. In conclusion, the method analyzed in the present research can be effectively applied by the wind turbine manufacturers and the wind farm operators as an operation framework, which can lead to a limited (as possible) design‐out maintenance cost, failures' minimization, and safety maximization for the whole wind turbine system.